The NDA is most likely retaining power at the Centre although with a reduced majority. The TDP and the JDU will flex their muscles, now that the BJP's tally is expected to be less than 272 seats.
Analysts could infer that the pandemic-induced lockdown and the resultant economic hardships have weakened the position of the poor, resulting in anti-incumbency taking root. But the analysis would be half-baked. If that was the case, it would have reflected in the Assembly election results of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. In all those elections, BJP did extremely well.
If anything, the pandemic has actually helped Modi beat the anti-incumbency. It was during the pandemic that the Modi government doubled the earlier amount of free ration given under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana. More than 80 crore people started getting free ration since 2020. This was crucial for BJP's victory in the 2022 UP elections as well.
The scheme is so popular that, in December 2023, the PM extended it for another five years. When it was first introduced in 2020, it was meant to last for just a few months. The popularity of the scheme is so huge that Modi didn't want to end it.
So, counter-intuitively, the pandemic actually helped Modi. Otherwise, Rahul Gandhi's wild promises of freebies for the poor would have literally washed away the BJP this time.
