Historically speaking, Telugu Desam Party president Chandrababu Naidu was never voted to power twice in a row. Every time he got elected as the CM, he was stripped off power the very next term.
Coming to the vote share of TDP, it is expected to slip below 40% again in the coming election. After gaining 39% vote share in 2019, the party is likely to be kept to below 40% vote share this term as well.
1983 - 46.30% ( Government )
1985 - 46.21% ( Government )
1989 - 36.54% ( Opposition )
1994 - 44.14% ( Government )
1999 - 43.87% ( Government )
2004 - 37.59% ( Opposition )
2009 - 28.12% ( Opposition )
2014 - 44.9% ( Government )
2019 - 39.17% ( Opposition )
The primary political narrative is that there will be no scope for Chandrababu Naidu's TDP or any of the other opposition parties in AP. The main battle will only be between pro-Jagan and anti-Jagan votes.
Those who loved Jagan's welfare schemes will be polling in favor of YCP, and the minute section who are still inclined towards caste politics and disregard the good work of the Jagan government will poll for the alliance. There will be no pro-TDP vote share. So, the chances are that TDP will be restricted to sub-40% vote share this term. The alliance parties are not expected to fare any better either.
