As per analysts observing the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, there is no Modi wave in the country. So, the NDA winning 400 seats is ruled out. Two phases are over and there are no signs that voters are enthusiastic about the elections. Since there is no palpable enthusiasm on ground, the 2024 General Election has come to be described by commentators as a waveless election.
Senior journalist Rajdeep Sardesai has toured several parts of the country this year. He has been to Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, among others. His considered opinion is that voters are tired. "There is an election fatigue. People have gone through a lot in the last five years. From Covid-19 to agrarian distress, there has been a lot. In 2019, there was a wave. This time, there is none," Sardesai said on the India Today channel.
But does that mean the BJP is going to put up a flop show? "In a waveless election, the party with a strong cadre and organizational set-up will be at an advantage. In the Hindi belt, where the BJP has a strong organization, the mobilization and booth management are going to help the party," Sardesai says.
If the BJP maintains its 2019 numbers in the Hindi belt, it will be through. It is likely to increase its tally in West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.
The talk is that BJP's allies like Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), JDU and JDS are not helping much. Even TDP is not in a sweet spot. So, NDA winning even 330 seats is difficult in a waveless election. The INDI Alliance will be defeated but NDA will not win a landslide.
