Axis My India's Pradeep Gupta has predicted a Kootami win in the AP Assembly elections. In Lok Sabha, his polling agency predicted a YSRCP rout. There is no doubt that Axis is a credible agency with a massive success rate, but in AP's case this time, its numbers could be wrong.
Not just the numbers, even the election analysis sounds spurious. Appearing on India Today, Gupta said on Sunday that the Jagan Mohan Reddy government was hugely popular in AP till before Chandrababu Naidu's arrest in September 2023. After the TDP and Pawan Kalyan galvanized public support, the government became unpopular, he theorized.
The theory doesn't sound believable at all. How can a hugely popular government invite the anger (a word used by Gupta himself) of the people just because of one blunder? Yes, a blunder would surely give rise to some dissatisfaction but voter anger is an extreme thing. A government has to fail in multiple aspects for anger to take root. Just the arrest of the Opposition leader doesn't make much of a difference to voting choices, especially when the government's welfare schemes are popular.
Axis' numbers suggest that voters chose the NDA overwhelmingly when it comes to Lok Sabha but not so when it comes to the Assembly. This implies a cross-voting and is even more dubious, on the face of it. The BJP is not at all popular in AP. How come the NDA is winning about 20 LS seats in this scenario? There is no Ram Mandir wave in AP, unlike in Telangana.
The question of whether north Indian pollsters really understand AP will be known on June 4. For now, though, let's be skeptical.
